In addition, many other factors could have affected the precipitation of South China Sea, such as the polar snow cover and snow depth. (2013). In addition to TPST, global warming, interannual, and interdecadal variability, such as WNPSH, ENSO, PDO, and AMO, can also influence the summer rainfall in this area. While there are few times when you cannot travel to Tibet, when traveling overland to Tibet, it is best to make the trip along the highways in spring and autumn, from April to May and September to November. 26, 2701–2718. We only considered five other factors comprising global warming, ENSO, WNPSH, PDO, and AMO. Overall, global warming and interdecadal variability in climate systems, such as the WNPSH, ENSO, AMO, and PDO influence the change of summer rainfall in this area. Applied Regression Analysis. 5:eaau8932. Bull. Abstract. Geophys. Temperatures are also starting to drop, as the summer ends and the cooler weather takes over. J. Adv. March may be the “official” start of spring, but temperatures do not rise much yet. J. Climatol. An earlier version, ERA–Interim (Berrisford et al., 2011), is also used for comparisons. Warming rate is found amplification with elevation in high–altitude region in recent years, especially the Tibetan Plateau (Beniston et al., 1997; Liu and Chen, 2000; Beniston, 2003; Seidel and Free, 2003; Pepin and Lundquist, 2008; Liu et al., 2009, 2012; Wang et al., 2014; Pepin et al., 2015; Wu et al., 2017; Zhu and Fan, 2018; Gao et al., 2019). Clim. At the same time, the negative relationship between them is also obvious, extending from the southern of Tibetan Plateau across the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the Korean Peninsula and Japan along the south–northeast trend, which is generally dominated by the Meiyu front. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. The best time to visit Mount Kailash and Lake Manasarovar is spring and autumn, from April to June and September through October. The observational dataset, with 693 national–level basic stations in China, is also used for precipitation, during the 38–year period of 1980–2016. Sci. Figure 9. 43, 87-101. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1889-3, Wu, G. X., Duan, A. M., Liu, Y. M., Mao, J. Y., Ren, R. C., Bao, Q., et al. Vectors are ignored for values <0.20. 21, 3149-3164. doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI1912.1, Duan, A. M., Wu, G. X., Liu, Y. M., Ma, Y. M., and Zhao, P. (2012). doi: 10.1029/2008GL034330, Wang, Q., Fan, X., and Wang, M. (2014). Kun Jia, Yunfeng Ruan, Yanzhao Yang, Zhen You, Assessment of CMIP5 GCM Simulation Performance for Temperature Projection in the Tibetan Plateau, Earth and Space Science, 10.1029/2019EA000962, 6, 12, (2362-2378), (2019). Combining all datasets, the time series is separated into two periods, 1980–1994 and 1998–2016. However, to what extent can TP heating or latent heat release explain the change of Meiyu. Persistent weakening trend in the spring sensible heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and its impact on the Asian summer monsoon, Clim. However, the nighttime drop in temperature is equally as large, with temperatures dropping to as low as minus 7 degrees in December and January. 27, 881–893. The correlation between them changed from the positive to a strong positive. 5, 1183–1195. Adv. The final constructed multiple regression equations between the SCSSM precipitation and Tibetan Plateau summer surface temperature (TPST), WNPSH, global warming (GW) at four datasets. Sci. The variable selection procedure is shown in Table 2. Often visited as a twin stop with Lake Manasarovar, one of the Great Three Holy Lakes of Tibet, there is a defined period when it is best to take a Mount Kailash tour. Efroymson, M. A. Ye, D. Z., and Gao, Y. X. Figure 10. The only suggestion is that it is hard to get a Tibet train ticket in summer holiday, especially from July to August, and from late September to early October, when it is the peak season for domestic tourists traveling to Tibet. Standardized partial regression coefficients between Tibetan Plateau temperature and wind field at 200 hPa in East Asia: (A,C,E) for the period from 1980 to 1994 and (B,D,F) for the period from 1998 to 2016. The PDO index is downloaded from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) by using the NOAA's Extended Reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST Version 4). J. Atmos. The reliability of the GPCP precipitation dataset is examined by comparing it with the observed precipitation dataset (Figures 4A,B). Standardized partial regression coefficients between Tibetan Plateau temperature and summer precipitation (GPCP) during: (A) 1980–1994, (B) 1998–2016, and (C) 1980–2016. Res. But rest assured, you can visit any time you like. The year of abrupt change in TPST may occur either in 1995 (Figure 3D), 1996 (Figure 3B), or 1997 (Figures 3C,E), depending on the dataset, being 1996 in the observation station, 1995 in the ERA5, but 1997 in the JRA55 and ERA–Interim. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2780.DCOTSS>2.0.CO;2. At its elevation of 3,656 meters, Lhasa is one of the highest cities in the world, yet has over 3,000 hours of sunshine every year. Berrisford, P., Dee, D., Poli, P., and Brugge, P. (2011). Clim. Obviously, the predictive variables of TPST and WNPSH are both significant (P < 0.1), but the regression coefficients between WNPSH and SCSSMP are larger than that of TPST at four datasets. Spatial analysis of air temperature and precipitation variability across the Tibetan Plateau was undertaken. This study investigates impacts of the warming Tibetan Plateau on air quality in the Sichuan Basin. Effects of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan) Plateau on the circulation features over the plateau and its surrounding areas. It should be noted that similar results are also captured in other moving average window lengths (11 years and 15 years) and small change the region (100-135°E, 0-20°N; 100-135°E, 0-22°N;100-140°E, 5-20°N; 100-145°E, 0-22°N; not showed). This is naturally the busiest travel time in Tibet, when people come for the warmer weather and higher oxygen content. Int. Temperature Change Over the Tibetan Plateau. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00587.1, Song, F., and Zhou, T. (2015). Ohmura, A. 2, 100-116. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwu045. (1957). 31, 3061-3076. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0448.1, Feng, J., Wang, L., and Chen, W. (2014). Soc. Lhasa - Gyantse - Shigatse - Everest Base Camp - Kathmandu, Lhasa - Gyantse - Shigatse - Everest Base Camp – Lhasa, Lhasa - Gyantse - Shigatse - Mt. J Geophys Res. 1: station data, 2: JRA55, 3: ERA5, and 4: ERA–Interim data. How should we select the predictive variables and construct a complete and realistic regression model? Decadal change in the correlation pattern between the Tibetan Plateau winter snow and the East Asian summer precipitation during 1979-2011. A stepwise regression model is used to exclude the signals of global warming, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). doi: 10.1029/2011JD016187, Lee, S, Seo, Y., and Ha, K. (2013). The Tibetan Plateau surface temperatures are therefore determined from the observation data and the 2–m surface temperature in these reanalysis datasets. 2d Edition. We offer the latest Tibet train information that keeps updating since 2006 when the first train to Tibet opened. J. Clim. In this study, the spatiotemporal distributions of monthly and annual temperature minima (T min) and maxima (T max), extreme T min and T max, the highest (lowest) T min (T max), frost day (FD), icing day (ID), summer day (SD) and tropical night (TR) at 112 stations and over the ten large river basins on the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS) during 1963–2015 are examined. Global Planet Chang. 35, L14701. Impacts of global climate change on the occurrence and development of air pollution have attracted more attention. Articles, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CAS), China. Fan, Y., Fan, K., Xu, Z., and Li, S. (2018). Temperatures average between 20 and 24 with temperatures from May to July reaching as high as 30 degrees. Climate J. According to a report by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), the global mean temperature has increased by an average of 0.74 °C over the previous 100 years (1906–2005), and the warming trend over the previous 50 years was 0.13 °C per decade; there was a nearly 2-fold increase in the rate of warming over the previous 100 years. Then we only analyze the standardized partial regression coefficients between the TPST and precipitation, as well as evaluating the relative contributions to precipitation. In the subsequent analyses, we therefore use GPCP precipitation data to examine the changeable TPST–SCSSMP relationship. The Japanese 55–year Reanalysis (JRA−55) is also used, which is a high–quality homogeneous climate dataset from 1980 to recent (Kobayashi and Iwasaki, 2016). Figure 8. The monsoon rains make up for around 90 percent of the area’s annual precipitation. The weather in spring and autumn is ideal for trekking, with drier weather and less rain, clear skies and relatively warm temperatures. However, comparisons with the period of 1980–1994 and 1998–2016 (Figures 5A1–A4, B1–B4) show that the TPST–SCSSMP relationship changes, when the shift start around 1996. Ocean 40, 113-124. doi: 10.3137/ao.400203, Su, J., Duan, A., and Xu, H. (2017). (2014). Clim. Temperature trends at high elevations: patterns across the globe. Malardel, S., Wedi, N., Deconinck, W., Diamantakis, M., Kuhnlein, C., Mozdzynski, G., et al. We are headed in Xining and Lhasa, with local operators in Beijing, Xi'an, Shanghai and Chengdu. Some issues still do not involve. It is means that significant convection is likely to occur in the region during the latter period (Figure 10b), which also means that it is favorable for moisture convergence here. Climate Dyn. For Tibet trekking tours, the best time to travel is from September to the end of October, with April to the end of May coming in as a close second. Sensitivity of the South Asian Monsoon to elevated heating. It is also supported by the project of Enhancing School with Innovation of Guangdong Ocean University (230419053); Projects (Platforms) for Construction of Top-ranking Disciplines of Guangdong Ocean University (231419022); Special Funds of Central Finance Support the Development of Local Colleges and Universities (000041). The annual average temperature is 2 ℃, the average temperature of the warmest month is 10-18 ℃, the average temperature of the coldest month is - 10 ℃ Clim. Interannual changes in summer temperature averaged by the Tibetan Plateau and globe (black) for in situ stations (red), JRA55 (gray), ERA5 (blue), ERA–Interim (brown), and globe (black, JRA55) (units: °C). May to October is the best time to visit, as the temperatures are warmer on average, and the nights are not yet too cold, with the hottest months being in June and July. Int. Climates are much different in different areas in Tibet and temperatures vary greatly within a single day. You can check the average temperature of each place in your preferred travel month and have a general idea of what to wear according to the temperature. Clim. 4:1147–1167. Find the answer here and get well understanding of the travel tips for your ebc trip. Beijing: Science Press. With dozens of places in which to see and photograph the beautiful blossoms, there is no doubt that spring is the best time to be there. Black spots indicate significant differences above the 90% confidence level based on the Student's t–test. The Meteorology of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau. One of the best times to visit Everest Base Camp in Tibet is spring, from April to May, as the colder weather is now over, and the rainy season has not yet started. Quantitative analysis of surface warming amplification over the Tibetan Plateau after the late 1990s using surface energy balance equation. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4360-7, Keywords: interdecadal variations, South China Sea summer monsoon, Tibetan Plateau, changing relationship, warming amplification, Citation: Liang M, Xu J, Chan JCL, Wu L and Xu X (2020) Changing Relationship Between Tibetan Plateau Temperature and South China Sea Summer Monsoon Precipitation. Is it too cold to visit Tibet in winter? In addition, the maximum value of the partial regression coefficient during the summer can reach 0.5 and−0.6, which is larger than that in the other seasons. (1992). Figure 2. Berkshire: Reading. Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing II. Much of the region is still in winter’s frozen claws, with only the central areas climbing to above freezing. China Ser. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00208.1, Beniston, M. (2003). The results show that a dramatic shift is found during 1980–2016 (P < 0.05) in all datasets (Figure 3A). Office Address: F11,Unit 1,Building 1, #33Gaohua Heng Street,Chengdu, China 610041, Copyright © 2006-2020 ChinaTibetTrain.com. The results verify the conclusion that the TPST warming is greater than that of the globe and a dramatic shift occurs around 1996. “Multiple regression analysis,” Mathematical Methods for Digital Computers, eds A. Ralston and H. S. Wilf (New York, NY: Wiley), 191–203. Clim. ENSO-South China Sea summer monsoon interaction modulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Owing to such extremities of climate, the Changtang region is one of the most sparsely populated regions of Asia. Hoskins (1991) interpreted the atmospheric response to a given thermal forcing as the formation of lower layer cyclonic circulation and upper layer anticyclonic circulation. As June rolls in, the weather starts to see some more rain across the plateau, though this is still just beginning. Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P., Janowiak, J., et al. Famous for the peach blossoms that bloom on the thousands of trees across the prefecture every April, Nyingchi is one of the lowest places on the Tibetan plateau, with an average elevation of around 3,000 meters. Known as the “City of Sunlight” in Tibet, the weather in Lhasais relatively mild throughout the year, without it being too cold in the winter or too hot in the summer. 18, 112–117. Vectors are ignored for values <0.15. Weather and climate effects of the Tibetan Plateau. JC, LW, and XX provide some useful suggestions. In addition, ENSO was strongly modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which furtherly affected on the SCSSMP (Lee et al., 2013; Feng et al., 2014; Song and Zhou, 2015; Bollasina Massimo and Gabriele, 2018). The various datasets and indexes used in this study and the corresponding Websites. Finally, we establish a multiple regression model with the SCSSMP, TPST, global warming, and WNPSH (Table 3). 51, 3537-3557. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4095-5, Boos, W. R., and Kuang, Z. M. (2013). Zhang et al. The Tibetan Plateau tends to have enhanced warming and wetting phenomena under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C. Change. doi: 10.1002/asl.732, Wang, B., Qing, B., and Hoskins, B. Even in the coldest months, from December to February, the temperatures at night only get to between minus two and minus five degrees. 10, 288–296. Res. Tibetan Plateau serves as a water tower. Xiaoying Ouyang, Dongmei Chen, Yao Feng, Yonghui Lei, Comparison of seasonal surface temperature trend, spatial variability, and elevation dependency from satellite-derived products and numerical simulations over the Tibetan Plateau from 2003 to 2011, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 10.1080/01431161.2018.1482024, (1-14), (2018). But none of the added variables and regression equation is significantly when each of variable is added, which means that PDO, ENSO, and AMO are not important predictors. Sci. Sci. In the later period, a wave–like structure in the low–latitude moves easterly along the low–level monsoon and a strong cyclonic circulation exists in the South China Sea, which is consistent with the negative correlation between the TPST–OLR. Even at the altitude of EBC (5,200 meters), the climate of Mount Everest Area is that of a typical plateau monsoon climate, with both wet and dry seasons. Section 4 examines the influence of the interdecadal variation of the TPST on atmospheric circulation. Change. Closing the Mackenzie Basin water budget, water years 1994/95 to 1996/97. Meanwhile, as the largest high-elevation part of the cryosphere outside the polar regions, with vast areas of mountain glaciers, permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, the TP is characterized as an area sensitive to global climate change. (2017) chose the grids above 2,000 m from the reanalysis datasets to quantitatively analyze the warming amplification over the Tibetan Plateau. Table 2. 73, 20-35. The trend is therefore reliable and robust, despite the annual variability after 2005. (2003). Lhasa’s climate can be divided into two main seasons, wet and dry, and the wet season is mainly from June to September. 9, 112-130. doi: 10.1007/BF02656935, Ding, Y. H., Sun, Y., Wang, Z., Zhu, Y., and Song, Y. 146 - Winter 2015/16, ECMWF, 6. Heating Effect of the Tibetan Plateau on rainfall anomalies over North China during rainy season (in Chinese). Red dashed lines represent wave-like structures. The Tibetan plateau observatory of plateau scale soil moisture and soil temperature, Tibet - Obs, for quantifying uncertainties in coarse resolution satellite and model products. Table 3. Atmos. The warmer weather and brighter days mean that the weather is ideal for touring around the sights of the capital and the outlying areas, visiting monasteries and Dzongs, and learning more about the unique architecture and people of this high-altitude region. A stepwise regression model is conducted to explore global warming and natural internal variabilities, such as PDO, AMO, ENSO, and WNPSH, that can affect the changes in the relationship between the TPST and South China Sea summer monsoon precipitation (SCSSMP). Xu, Chan, Wu, G., and Xie, G. D. ( 2005.... Trend is robust to less rainfall in this study and the cooler weather takes.! 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